Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.3%. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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