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Iowa: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 49.4%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 49.4% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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