Results of a new poll administered by WTHR/Howey Politics were circulated. The poll asked participants from Indiana for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
WTHR/Howey Politics poll results
The results show that 39.0% of respondents intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 18 to April 21, among a random sample of 500 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 45.4% for Clinton and 54.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 55.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Indiana. In comparison to his numbers in the WTHR/Howey Politics poll Trump's poll average is 0.9 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 56.9% of the two-party vote in Indiana. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.2 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.