DeSart model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 49.4%.
In Iowa, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.