DeSart model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 49.4%.

In Iowa, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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