Results of a new poll carried out by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were spread. The poll asked participants from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of respondents are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.3 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.2%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote is 6.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.