CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Virginia is traditionally a swing state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically gained similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 21 and September 23. The sample size was 1237 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 54.9% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Virginia sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Virginia. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is significant.