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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, and 48.6% for Trump. In comparison, on September 30, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 51.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, because they may include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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