Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Vermont for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often contain large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.8% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.