UtahPolicy/Dan Jones published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
The results show that 27.0% of interviewees are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 8 to June 17. A total of 614 registered voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they may include substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 4.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.