Results of a new poll conducted by Salt Lake TribuneSalt Lake Tribune were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Utah for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Salt Lake TribuneSalt Lake Tribune poll results
The results show that 25.0% of participants will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 12 to September 19 with 820 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 42.4% for Clinton and 57.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. That is, Polly's prediction is 4.3 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.