LA Times published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
The results show that 42.0% of participants indicated that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 23 and September 29. The sample size was 2560 participants. The margin of error is +/-4.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump. On September 27 Clinton received 47.8% in the LA Times poll and Trump received only 52.2%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 48.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Compared to numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 4.6 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.8% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 5.0 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.