Results of a new poll carried out by Harper (R) were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Harper (R) poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 21 to September 22 with 500 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.4 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. In the most recent Harper (R) poll on March 2 Clinton obtained 52.9%, while Trump obtained only 47.1%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Relative to her numbers in the Harper (R) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.