MercyhurstMercyhurst released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
MercyhurstMercyhurst poll results
Of those who responded, 42.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 12 and September 23. The sample size was 420 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-4.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.4%. Relative to her numbers in the MercyhurstMercyhurst poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.