Ohio: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio.

Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single models can contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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