Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will win 50.9%.

Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.6% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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