DeSart model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.

Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Single models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.6% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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