Results of a new poll administered by JMC Analytics were released. The poll asked respondents from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who answered the question, 35.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24. A total of 905 likely voters responded. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.3 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.