New Hampshire: New WBUR/MassINC poll shows Clinton with 9 points lead
By WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
New Hampshire is traditionally a swing state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often gained similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is regarded important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 29 with 502 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in New Hampshire has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 1.7 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.
