Suffolk University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where the two major political parties have often gained similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is regarded critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Suffolk University poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 29. A total of 500 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 49.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Nevada. This value is 3.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's forecast is 3.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.