MIRS-GSCI/Target InsyghtMIRS-GSCI released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
MIRS-GSCI/Target InsyghtMIRS-GSCI poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 18 to September 24. A total of 600 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.2%. This value is 0.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the MIRS-GSCI/Target InsyghtMIRS-GSCI poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.