Detroit NewsDetroit News published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Detroit NewsDetroit News poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 27 and September 28. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.2%. Compared to her numbers in the Detroit NewsDetroit News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.