Results of a new poll conducted by OpinionWorks were announced. The poll asked participants from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30, among a random sample of 754 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.6 points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland has Clinton at 69.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.