Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump. In comparison, on September 29, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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