The Issue-index model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 55.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 44.2%. In comparison, on September 27 Trump was predicted to obtain 43.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be treated with caution, as they can contain large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Issue-index index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.