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Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead


The Issue-index model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 55.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 44.2%. In comparison, on September 27 Trump was predicted to obtain 43.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, as they can contain large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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