Goucher CollegeGoucher College published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
According to the results, 58.0% of participants intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 6.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.