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Clinton ahead, according to today’s PollyVote forecast


The combined PollyVote currently forecasts a national major-party vote share of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. For the Democrats this is the worst PollyVote prediction (at the same point in time in the election) since democrat Barack Obama and republican John McCain ran for presidency 2008.

What the components expect

The component methods widely agree on who is ahead: Five expect a win for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.

In contrast to Polly's prediction, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.3%.

Combined polls predict a vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.7% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Trump lost 10.8 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has exhibited a shift this large.

Compared to historical elections, the Democrats' forecast of 51.9% in aggregated polls is particularly low. The last time the forecast fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. At that time, aggregated polls predicted a vote share of 47.7% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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