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Big-issue model shows Clinton in the lead


The Big-issue model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be regarded with caution, because they may include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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