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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump. In comparison, on September 29, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 51.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.7%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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