As of today, Polly predicts that Clinton will obtain 52.2% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.8% for Trump. For the Democrats this is the worst PollyVote prediction (at the same point in time in the election) since democrat Barack Obama and republican John McCain ran against each other 2008.
A look at Polly's component methods
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
Contrary to Polly's prediction, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.4%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 51.8% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.7% of the vote.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 11.9 percentage points.
The prediction markets forecast of 53.3% for the Democrats is notably low compared to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 52.5% for Barack Obama.