OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they often include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 69.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's forecast is 4.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.