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Jerome model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead


The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio.

In Ohio, the election outcome is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Ohio. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 51.3 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.5% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.9 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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