The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Ohio. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 51.3 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.5% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.9 percentage points lower.