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Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will end up with 50.9%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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