PPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP poll results
The results show that 49.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 28 with 933 participants. The error margin is +/-3.2 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they may include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. For comparison: Only 47.3% was obtained by Clinton in the PPP poll on August 28, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.7%. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the PPP poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.