KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 59.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28. A total of 732 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump. In the latest KABC/SurveyUSA poll on September 11 Clinton obtained only 64.0%, while Trump obtained 36.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.6%. In comparison to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.6 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the PollyVote is 4.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is significant.