Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Remington Research (R) poll results
The results show that 39.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 49.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 26 to September 27, among a random sample of 1279 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Missouri sees Trump at 56.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. This means that the PollyVote is 1.5 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is negligible.