Results of a new poll conducted by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were published. The poll asked participants from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of respondents indicated that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% indicated that they would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20. A total of 514 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.3 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. Relative to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's prediction is 5.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is significant.