Ipsos/Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Ipsos/Reuters poll results
The results show that 42.0% of respondents plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was carried out from September 27 to September 28 with 1336 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump. For comparison: Only 50.6% was gained by Clinton in the Ipsos/Reuters poll on August 30, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 51.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.3 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.