JMC Analytics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
According to the results, 35.0% of respondents said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24, among a random sample of 905 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.