The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will win 48.7%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain only 48.7% of the vote.
In Ohio, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single models may incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.5% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.