The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be interpreted with caution, as they may include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single index models, one should use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.4%. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points better.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.