FL ChamberFL Chamber released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Florida is traditionally a purple state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often achieved similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
FL ChamberFL Chamber poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 15 to September 20 with 617 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often include substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.3%. Compared to her numbers in the FL ChamberFL Chamber poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.