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Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Ohio econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 50.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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