WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
The results show that 60.0% of participants intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 7 to September 10 with 506 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Massachusetts has Clinton at 61.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 4.3 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.0% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.