Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGov were announced. The poll asked respondents from Missouri for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who answered the question, 37.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 21 to September 23. A total of 1087 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-3.9 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 44.6% for Clinton and 55.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 56.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Missouri. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.