KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 57.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11 with 678 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.8 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 61.5%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 60.0% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the PollyVote is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.