538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 49.0%. In comparison, on September 28, Clinton was predicted to collect only 50.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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