In the latest forecast, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will collect 52.3% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.7% for Trump. For the Democrats this is the worst PollyVote forecast (at the same point in time in the election) since democrat Barack Obama and republican John McCain ran for presidency 2008.
This is what Polly's component methods say
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now ahead by 50.4%.
Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 51.8% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.6% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 12.3 percentage points.
In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 53.5% in prediction markets is notably low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 52.5% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.