OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30. A total of 754 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 4.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is significant.