Reuters released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Reuters poll results
The results show that 44.0% of participants intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 26. A total of 1041 respondents responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. In the most recent Reuters poll on September 19 Clinton obtained only 50.0%, while Trump obtained 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 51.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the Reuters poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.