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New Reuters poll has Trump behind by 6 points

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Reuters released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Reuters poll results
44

Clinton

38

Trump

The results show that 44.0% of participants intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 26. A total of 1041 respondents responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. In the most recent Reuters poll on September 19 Clinton obtained only 50.0%, while Trump obtained 50.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently runs at 51.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the Reuters poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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