Morning Consult published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Morning Consult poll results
The results show that 45.0% of interviewees will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was in the field between September 26 and September 27. The sample size was 1253 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.8 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. On September 24 Clinton received only 51.2% in the Morning Consult poll and Trump received 48.8%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.7%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Morning Consult poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote.